Win/lose vs True/false

And the limits of managing to “number go up"

There’s basically two philosophies to manage around in early companies and the choice is often let implicit or unstated. But I’m not a subtle guy so let’s lay it out.

Option #1 - Win vs lose: make the number go up

Option #2 - True vs false: validate a thing, which unlocks an opportunity, that can turn into a business

The problem with a win/lose mentality too early in a company’s life is that

1. it prioritizes optimization and acceleration off a small base without necessarily answering what you’re doing or why it matters

2. it can create the delusion/illusion of success without getting to a step change that unlocks more capital and the next set of problems/opportunities

Early stage companies should be constantly graduating from one set of true/false propositions to the next rather than optimizing for throughput alone.

At some scale, most businesses turn into win/lose propositions. really great companies keep finding true/false bets along the way

Venture is great for funding falsifiable experiments with definitive outcomes. If you can’t orchestrate a test with a true/false outcome, don’t raise venture or treat it as pure FAFO round.